Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: U.S. Single Family Home Prices Up 3.6 Percent, but Double-Dip Decline Expected In Many Markets
Metro areas with early 2010 price bounces expected to experience corrections through 2011
In the second quarter of 2010, U.S. single-family home prices rose an
average of 3.6 percent over the year-ago quarter, driven by strong price
increases in relatively high-priced markets, such as
Factors weighing on the housing market include chronic high
unemployment, the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit and the large
number of distressed properties that remain in markets such as
Other observations from the second quarter 2010 data include:
- Much of the sustained activity in the first half of the year was due to the first-time homebuyer tax credit that expired in June. Since then, home sales activity has plummeted.
-
Fiserv and Moody's Economy.com expect that home prices will drop over the next four quarters in nearly all metro markets before they start to stabilize at the end of 2011.
"Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had
strong spring and summer 2010 price increases," said
For example, prices in
Fiserv Case-Shiller expects that the second double-dip declines will continue through the rest of this year until the end of next summer.
"Many of the metro areas that were fortunate enough to have a spring and summer bounce will experience double-dip price declines. If there are no downside surprises for the economy or the housing and mortgage markets, home prices should start to stabilize at the end of 2011," added Stiff.
The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes forecast that average single-family home
prices will fall another 7.1 percent over the next 12 months. Steep home
price declines are expected to continue in markets that have been hurt
most by the housing crisis. From the second quarter of 2010 through the
second quarter of 2011, average home prices in
At the end of the second quarter 2010, the median U.S. home price was
The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, which include data covering thousands
of zip codes, counties, metro areas and state markets, are owned and
generated by
Information on the Indexes can be found at the Fiserv Case-Shiller website at www.caseshiller.fiserv.com.
Representative home price data for major U.S. markets:
| Metro Area |
Population (2009) |
Change in Home Prices (2007:Q2 to 2010:Q2) |
Change in Home Prices (2009:Q2 to 2010:Q2) |
Forecast Change in Home Prices (2010:Q2 to 2011:Q2) |
|||||||||
| United States | 307,006,550 | -24.7% | 3.6% | -7.1% | |||||||||
| Austin, TX | 1,705,080 | 3.9% | -0.8% | -0.6% | |||||||||
| Baltimore, MD | 2,690,890 | -16.8% | 0.6% | -2.8% | |||||||||
| Columbus, OH | 1,801,850 | -5.1% | 2.7% | -3.6% | |||||||||
| Fort Worth, TX | 2,121,230 | 1.9% | -2.2% | -0.9% | |||||||||
| Indianapolis, IN | 1,743,660 | -2.4% | -1.5% | -2.5% | |||||||||
| Jacksonville, FL | 1,328,140 | -32.1% | -4.5% | -6.4% | |||||||||
| Kansas City, MO | 2,067,590 | -5.6% | -3.2% | -1.6% | |||||||||
| Louisville, KY | 1,258,580 | -1.2% | -2.3% | -0.4% | |||||||||
| Milwaukee, WI | 1,559,670 | -9.8% | 1.5% | -2.4% | |||||||||
| Nashville, TN | 1,582,260 | -6.9% | -0.6% | -2.2% | |||||||||
| New Orleans, LA | 1,189,980 | -7.5% | -5.6% | -3.9% | |||||||||
| Orlando, FL | 2,082,420 | -47.1% | -3.3% | -13.4% | |||||||||
| Philadelphia, PA | 4,012,570 | -6.3% | 0.4% | -3.0% | |||||||||
| Raleigh, NC | 1,125,830 | -0.6% | -3.2% | -0.4% | |||||||||
| Sacramento, CA | 2,127,360 | -40.2% | 2.3% | -9.6% | |||||||||
| Salt Lake City, UT | 1,130,290 | -14.0% | -7.7% | -3.5% | |||||||||
| San Antonio, TX | 2,072,130 | -0.1% | -3.6% | -1.1% | |||||||||
| San Jose, CA | 1,839,700 | -26.1% | 18.8% | -11.7% | |||||||||
| St. Louis, MO | 2,852,910 | -4.8% | 0.2% | -2.4% | |||||||||
| Tucson, AZ | 1,020,200 | -31.0% | -3.3% | -4.2% |
Additional Resources
Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes - http://www.caseshiller.fiserv.com/indexes.aspx
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