Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: Despite Recent Declines, Home Prices Expected to Stabilize Across U.S. by Early Next Year
- Housing affordability back to pre-bubble levels with average homes now only 5 percent more expensive than in 2000
- Home prices projected to dip further in 2011 and begin modest appreciation in 2012
- More than 95 percent of all metro areas are projected to rise by Q1 2013
The double-dip drop in home prices that began last year continued into the first quarter of 2011, with prices falling in 302 out of 384 metro areas tracked by Fiserv Case-Shiller. The decrease, an average of 5.1 percent as compared to the first quarter of last year, was expected, as housing demand settled to a lower level following last summer's expiration of the home buyer tax credit. Price declines in the recent quarter were also driven by a jump in foreclosure sales, which were temporarily stalled by loan processing issues that surfaced at the end of 2010.
Despite the weakness in housing markets, which remain a problem in
nearly every region,
Stiff pointed to several positive trends. "Mortgage delinquency rates have been falling for more than a year. Foreclosure rates have started to decline. The flood of bank-owned sales, which has swamped many markets, will finally begin to recede this year as fewer houses enter the foreclosure pipeline. Meanwhile, housing affordability has nearly returned to pre-bubble levels," said Stiff. "Relative to family income levels, the average U.S. home is now only 5 percent more expensive than it was in 2000."
Other highlights from the latest Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes include:
- Eight of the 10 worst performing markets in the 2011 first quarter had unemployment rates higher than the national average.
Five of the 10 best performing housing markets in the last five years
Texas, where the Midlandand OdessaMetropolitan areas have seen house prices grow 42 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively, from the 2006 first quarter to the 2011 first quarter.
The outlook for
Floridais a study in contrasts. Four of the 10 metro areas where home prices are projected to grow the most between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 are in Florida( Ocala; Palm Coast; Panama City- Lynn Haven- Panama City Beach; Palm Bay- Melbourne- Titusville). But the state is also home to six of the 10 markets projected to suffer the biggest home price declines over the same time period ( Miami- Miami Beach, Kendall; Fort Lauderdale- Pompano Beach- Deerfield Beach; Naples-Marco Island; Crestview-Fort WaltonBeach- Destin; Gainesville; Orlando- Kissimmee- Sanford).
Four metro areas in
Washington State( Tacoma; Kennewick- Pasco- Richland; Spokane; Olympia) are in the 10 markets projected to experience the highest home price increases for the 2011 first quarter to 2012 first quarter period.
Six of the 10 markets that have suffered the greatest price declines
from peak to the first quarter of 2011 are in
California( Merced; Modesto; Salinas; Stockton; Vallejo- Fairfield; Bakersfield- Delano).
The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, which include data covering thousands
of zip codes, counties, metro areas and state markets, are owned and
More information on the Indexes can be found at the Fiserv Case-Shiller website at www.caseshiller.fiserv.com.
Representative home price data for major U.S. markets:
Change in Home
Change in Home
Forecast Change in
|Fort Worth, TX||2,160,329||-1.1%||-1.4%||1.4%|
|Kansas City, MO||2,086,771||-7.5%||-2.1%||0.9%|
|New Orleans, LA||1,209,128||-7.2%||-1.4%||-4.2%|
|Salt Lake City, UT||1,150,349||-19.0%||-5.0%||-2.7%|
|San Antonio, TX||2,110,905||-0.3%||0.5%||-1.7%|
|San Jose, CA||1,863,711||-22.5%||-4.1%||-4.7%|
|St. Louis, MO||2,855,378||-10.7%||-7.5%||-2.5%|
- Fiserv Case-Shiller - www.caseshiller.fiserv.com
Federal Housing Finance Agency(FHFA) - http://www.fhfa.gov/
- For a presentation on the best and worst markets for the next two years, visit - http://slidesha.re/piy8M9
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